Saturday, 7 May 2016
After wasting time in the phony factional wars Zanu PF gets rude awaken with bond notes fiasco. By Wilbert Mukori
Let me say from the onset, I am really pleased that Zanu PF’s phony factional wars are now over and the regime can finally focus its attention on the nation’s BIG ISSUE – the worsening economic meltdown.
Ever since Grace Mugabe bust on the political stage in July 2014 with her shrill “Ndinonzi Mafira kureva!” (I am called (Mafira kureva) One who speaks the truth even to the death!) until now when she was finally silenced the regime has been totally preoccupied with her and what she had to say. All she has done was accused first Joice Mujuru and then Mnangagwa of all manner of crime some true others wild and fictitious just to elbow the two out of the way so she could succeed her husband as next president. She managed to “baby dump” Mujuru but failed to do the same with Mnangagwa.
When Mnangagwa’s supporters told Robert Mugabe last month that the war vets and those in the security sectors, whom Grace Mugabe’s G40 factions had been abusing, were the “stockholders of Zanu PF and Zimbabwe” whilst he, Robert Mugabe, was a “stakeholder who comes and goes”; Mugabe knew the game was over. The G40 faction had lost, there will be no more meet the people rallies and shrill voice of Mafira kureva will be head no more!
But before VP Mnangagwa has had time to savour his victory over Mafira kureva and her G40 faction he was reminded that there is an even bigger foe for him to defeat if he is ever to be president – the economy. The country is facing a serious cash crunch – just one of the many manifestations of the country’s economic meltdown.- and immediately it was clear that the regime has no answer.
The regime’s proposal to introduce bond notes (over the bond coins introduced supposedly to easy the shortage of small change) is kicking the tin can down the road – a cul-de-sac in this case – it will solve nothing.
The cash crunch is because Zimbabwe has become a supermarket nation, importing everything it consumes whilst exporting very little itself. There is bound to be a cash shortage because we have a lot more cash flowing out of the country than is flowing back in; that is not rocket science.
The introduction of these bond notes will easy the cash shortage for local transactions but put the squeeze on foreign ones as the drain in foreign currency will continues to the extend import costs exceed export receipts. It will not be long before the black market trade opens buying foreign currency with the bond notes triggering the fall in value to the latter.
Yes the regime has reintroduced the Z$ by the back door and called it bond notes. The banks will convert the foreign currency denominated accounts to bond notes at the official exchange rate but refuse to sell foreign currency at the same official rate (except to the lucky few). The days of Zimbabwe’s runaway inflation are back!
The RBZ governor’s instruction for all export payments to be 40% in Rand 10% in Euros and the balance in US$ if fiddling whilst Rome burns because the net worth of the cash received for exports. As long as cash to pay for imports continue to exceed the cash received for exports, breaking that cash into many others currency will change nothing, the cash crunch for foreign transactions will continue.
I am so, so pleased that the Zanu PF’s phony factional wars are over and the regime can finally grappling with the real big issue - the economic meltdown – after nearly two years on French leave listening to Mafira kureva. Here is a regime known for vote rigging, wanton violence, looting and all the other dirty tricks to cheat its political opponents and the nation at large to stay in power. For VP Mnangagwa to have an chance to become president, Zanu PF must now threaten, beat or even murder the root causes of economic meltdown and deliver economic recovery.
If the regime’s handling of the cash crunch is anything to go by then my fellow Zimbabweans Zanu PF has finally met more that the regime’s match in the economy! Zanu PF cannot bribe or cheat its way out of the serious economic meltdown the nation is facing.
Unemployment rate now a nauseating 90% plus; millions living in abject poverty; the proposed bond notes have already triggered a run on the banks as many people are determined to take out as much of their cash as possible before it is converter to worthless bond notes; etc. There is no doubt that the present economic situations already intolerable and yet as long as the regime stays in power things are set to get even worse.
To end Zimbabwe’s economic meltdown the nation must first end the political system that spawned it the de facto Zanu PF one-party dictatorship that has allowed mismanagement, corruption and lawlessness to grow and spread like cancerous tumours.
Zanu PF has cheated and rigged elections to avoid regime change but the serious economic meltdown will force regime change because it cannot be bribed, cheated or murdered!
It is the economy stupid!