“In computer science, garbage in, garbage out (GIGO) is where flawed, or nonsense input data produces nonsense output or "garbage"!” explained Wikipedia.
“The principle also applies more generally to all analysis and logic, in that arguments are unsound if their premises are flawed.”
Zanu PF and its army of apologists and spin doctors has drummed into many Zimbabweans’ mind the notion that the sanctions imposed by the USA, EU and other western countries are harming the poor Zimbabweans and not those on the sanctions list. This was nonsense designed to draw attention away from the real causes of Zimbabwe’s economic meltdown – the mismanagement, corruption and country’s pariah state status.
But like all tyrannical regime schooled in the art of propaganda and brainwashing; Zanu PF repeated the sanctions nonsense over and over again many people not only believed it but even seemingly independent media and analysts started repeating the nonsense as if it was empirical fact!
“Analysts warned the renewed sanctions will spread misery across Zimbabwe's economy, with a recession expected to hit factories and roll back production, especially those that run in partnership with multinational companies barred from the market by US sanctions. Blue-collar families also face the prospect of job losses, worsening inflation, accelerating the decline of the currency and making imports scarcer and more difficult to acquire,” reported Newsday.
To start with Zimbabwe’s economic troubles have their Genesis from soon after independence in 1980 when this Zanu PF pursued its socialist economic policies and reckless spending. By the late 1990s the IMF, WB and many other leading lending institution had stopped funding the Zimbabwe government because the country was up to her eye balls in debt and was failing to service the debt.
So by the time the western nation imposed the economic sanctions against Mugabe and his cronies in 2001/2 the Zimbabwe economy was already in the gutter!
The Zimbabwe economy had rallied significantly during the GNU, recording a 12% growth rate in the first year after a decade of negative growth, regardless of the sanctions remaining in place. The new found confidence was born out of the belief the GNU would produce a good and competent government. Sadly, the rigged 2013 elections brought back the Zanu PF dictatorship and, not surprising, the economic meltdown returned too.
Last November’s military coup was heralded as a “new dispensation” that would end the corruption and hold free, fair and credible elections and thus end Zimbabwe’s pariah state label. President Mnangagwa has done nothing to end corruption and the just ended elections were NOT free and fair.
The much hoped for flood of foreign investors and lenders will never happen because Zimbabwe is still a pariah state ruled by vote-rigging thugs. Investors do not do business with thugs!
The assertion that there will be a recession because “multinational companies will be barred from the market by US sanctions” is nonsense. What multinational company would want to do business in a country whose next regime change has to be another military coup, violent street protests or some such violent event!
Professor Stephen Chan from London University’s School of Oriental and African Studies was arguing the Americans would have passed the just ended elections as free and fair is violence that started 1st August had been delayed.
"All the government had to do was wait three weeks to a month for all the observer group reports to be filed - which would have been cautiously and conditionally optimistic - and Mnangagwa's engagement policy would have borne fruit,” argued Professor Chan.
"Someone in his administration couldn't wait. It was completely incompetent. The observer reports will now be much more critical. Zimbabwe needed US investment. That cannot now come. Without it, Zimbabwe will stay bankrupt."
"Someone in his administration couldn't wait. It was completely incompetent. The observer reports will now be much more critical. Zimbabwe needed US investment. That cannot now come. Without it, Zimbabwe will stay bankrupt."
I serious doubt that the western election observers’ reports would have been “conditionally optimistic” as Professor Chan claims. The USA observers had noticed there was no free public media; ZEC had failed to register diaspora voters and to produce a verified voters’ roll; etc.; etc. These are the issued the Americans had explicitly demanded as conditions for lifting the sanctions.
"There is growing evidence of the rich despots getting richer and the poor getting poorer during the subsistence of economic sanctions,” chipped in another regular commentator, Saungweme.
"There is growing evidence of the rich despots getting richer and the poor getting poorer during the subsistence of economic sanctions,” chipped in another regular commentator, Saungweme.
"To that extent, I would see the sanctions as doing more harm to the poor than good. The poor will now suffer from a double tragedy of rights abuses at the hands of the dictatorial regime and unpromising economic prospects from sanctions. Dialogue and back channel diplomacy are alternatives to sanctions that work and have less human costs. Americans should adopt these than sanctions."
It is corruption that has made the rich, richer and it is corruption that has made the poor, poorer. The vast wealth the rich cream off and waste on big mansions, 45 gold watches, fleet of posh cars, overseas trips, etc. is wealth that should otherwise be invested in health, education, etc. for the commonwealth.
In 2016, former President Mugabe has admitted to $15 billion in diamond revenue being “swindled”. To this day not one swindler has been arrested and not a single dollar recovered. A year ago the then Minister of Finance, Patrick Chinamasa, told parliament government was receiving 1/6 th of the expected revenue from diamonds. So the wholesale looting of the nation’s resource is still going on to this day!
No nation on earth can afford to be haemorrhaging $15 billion much less one with a GPD of $10 billion. And yet many of our mediocre analysts expect Zimbabwe to thrive regardless the corruption as long as the sanctions are lifted!
There is no doubt that Zimbabwe is in a serious economic situation with unemployment now a nauseating 90% and 75% of our people living on US$1.00 or less a day. The serious economic situation has made the country very unstable politically; the people are getting restless, they cannot be expected to endure these economic hardship for much longer.
What the country needs to end the economic meltdown is a competent government that will address the root causes of the economic problems – the mismanagement, the corruption and the bad governance – head on. This Zanu PF government has failed to deal with these problems and the nation’s efforts to get a different regime have failed.
Zanu PF usurped the people’s power elect a new regime and, to stay in power, the party has rigged elections for the last 38 years.
What Zimbabwe needs to get a competent government is to implement the democratic reforms to restore the people’s democratic freedoms and rights including the right to free, fair and credible elections. The Americans imposed the sanction of this Zanu PF junta to pressure the junta to hold free and fair elections.
The sanctions helping end the Zanu PF dictatorship and therefore the sanctions must stay! Anyone saying otherwise is talking nonsense, garbage.
@ Batidzirai
ReplyDelete"I do not get the logic of someone saying sanctions don't affect the poor, yet at the same time arguing that investors wont to do business in Zimbabwe," you say.
You are clearly assuming that investors won't do business in Zimbabwe because the country is under sanctions which is not necessary true. Investors will not want to invest in a country were the economy is unstable because of gross mismanagement and rampant corruption. They also do not like to invest in a country where there is no respect of rule of law and property rights can be taken away just like that!
If you bothered to look at Zimbabwe you will find that by the time the western nations imposed the sanctions in 2002 investment into the country had already dropped significantly.
If you think investors were going to flood into a nation in which the next regime change has to be through yet another coup or street protests then you really are naïve!
The Chinese and Russians help this junta rig the elections but only to make sure Zimbabwe remains a pariah state. Not even the Chinese and Russians would want to invest in Zimbabwe, as we have already seen throughout Mugabe's rule but this does not mean the two Asian giants will not join in the looting of Zimbabwe's resources!
@ Newsday
ReplyDeleteZimbabwe had unarmed simple task of proving that it had departed from ex-President Robert Mugabe's tyrannical rule, and be accepted by economically-abled nations.
Beyond any reasonable doubt, the country failed the credibility test and apparently some politicians of the current establishment, out of arrogance are refusing to accept this fact, and as such, the country remains incapacitated to access the capital powerhouses of the world because of the influence that America which passed Zidera has.
With US President Donald Trump having signed Zidera into law for an extended period until Zimbabwe learns the hard lesson, it is now clear that the country is back to December 21, 2001 when President George Bush signed for the first time this Bill into law.
What the politicians should bear in mind is the fact that US is under the leadership of the Republicans at the moment and it was the same Republicans whose senators in 2001 passed Zidera signed into law.
This should have been a warning shot to Mnangagwa and his team that indeed the country was in for a big test which any form of deception and pretence could not overcome, but unfortunately perhaps out of naivety or arrogance, this was ignored.
The usual order has been restored and Zanu-PF is again blaming opposition leaders for advocating for the sanctions which affect the ordinary men on the streets, while turning a blind eye to the need to implement real socio-political reform in order to have sanctions removed.
It's now time for the country to learn a lesson and it's also time for the person who shall be inaugurated as the next President to know that Zidera will remain in place until a clear commitment and demonstration in deed is displayed by the country holding a free, fair and credible election which is not marred by gross human rights violations.
The US remains a superpower whose endorsement, the country requires in order to gain full access to lucrative lines of credit and co-operation with its allies, including countries constituting the European Union.
Could not agree with you more there that the ball was in Zimbabwe's court to get the country back on the path to economic recovery and political stability and this Zanu PF junta regime messed up big time by failing to hold free, fair and credible elections.
Whilst sanctions by the west are important it must be said the would-be foreign investor and lender consider them as a second issue, at the most. The most important issue to them is the economic and political stability of the country. No one will want to invest in a country with 500 billion per cent hyper-inflation one day and never ending bank queue to get $20 the next. A country whose next regime change is another military coup or street protests of death and destruction.
By rigging the elections President Mnangagwa and his junta confirmed to the world that Zimbabwe was still a pariah state, contrary to all the regime's attempts to rebrand the country as new dispensation open for business. Investors do not do business in pariah state whether or not there are sanctions in operation too!
@ Givemore Joseph Munjeri
ReplyDeleteYou, Zanu PF apologists who love arguing in circles.
"ZIDERA has nothing to do with human rights. Just a mere punitive instrument put in place to inflict excruciating pain on Zimbabweans for taking the land from the white-man. How many countries the world over that are supported by USA with worse human rights violation records?" You say.
Even you cannot deny that there have been serious human right violation by this corrupt and tyrannical Zanu PF dictatorship. There are the human rights violation to do with denying the ordinary Zimbabweans their right to free and fair elections and even the right to life itself, on the one hand. On the other is the denial of people's right to own property which included the violent seizures of white-owned farms. So which human rights violation the west had in mind when the imposed the sanctions is academic - they picked the first and ignored the second, so what.
Zanu PF and its apologists insist the sanctions were imposed to punish the regime for seizing the white-owned farms.
As a black Zimbabwean who has felt the boot of the tyrannical regime on his neck for the last 38 years, I choose to ignore the regime and insist on the sanctions being maintained until Zanu PF holds free, fair and credible elections.
Zanu PF had the opportunity to hold free, fair and credible elections and call the west's bluff. It failed to deliver and therefore it can complain about the sanctions being for seizing the land and no one is listening.
Your argument that there are worse human rights offenders than Zimbabwe cuts no ice with the ordinary Zimbabweans whose life Zanu PF has made a hell-on-earth. Are you suggesting that Zimbabweans must continue to suffer until Zanu PF has amassed all the world records as the most corrupt, most incompetent, most ruthless, etc., etc. regime in the world. This is not some stupid beauty contest, your nincompoop!
Zimbabweans are sick and tired of the foolishness of opposition opportunists like Nelson Chamisa and Daniel Shumba who went into these elections without even having the common sense to insist on ZEC producing a clean and verified voters' roll. If Shumba has the evidence the elections were rigged then you must put up or shut up!
ReplyDeleteOf course, Zanu PF rigged the election and is likely to get away with it because it had all the opportunity to bury the evidence. These elections should have never taken place without first implementing the reforms designed to stop Zanu PF rigging. Proving that Zanu PF rigged the elections would have been a walk in the park if there was a clean verified voters' roll, for example. At least 10 polling stations had more than 100% voter turnout and some even had over 200%.
"Let's not be selfish, let's support MDC Alliance court challenge for the sake of democracy, it's not about Chamisa but the truth and democracy . Nelson Chamisa won those elections. My own votes were deflated too but were not enough to win the presidency," said Shumba.
You were being selfish when you decided to contest these flawed and illegal elections against repeated advice not to. It is now too late to save the day! What do you think Chamisa will ever accomplish with a 2/3 majority Zanu PF parliament.
The best course of action now is have these sham elections declared null and void and appoint an interim administration to implement the democratic reforms and hold fresh free, fair and credible elections.
Dewa Mavhinga argue US Senate to maintain sanctions of Zimbabwe.
ReplyDeleteHear, hear! Zimbabwe is going nowhere without first implementing the democratic reforms and holding free, fair and credible elections. The economic and political situation in Zimbabwe is now so bad that the need for everyone to redouble their efforts to ensure change cannot be over stated. The imposition of the sanctions on a select few in Zimbabwe has help to highlight the need for those in power to accept meaningful democratic reforms. Redoubling our efforts means moving this one gear up and make those in power sit up and pay attention.
The targeted economic sanctions must not only remain but must now be refined and tightened and made to count. The sanctions must be extended to include the families of all those on the list. The sanctions must be expanded to include those who continue to benefit from the dictatorship including members of the opposition who now hunt with the hound and run with the hare. There is no doubt that the opposition are now colluding with the regime by participating in flawed elections to give the process credibility in return for a few gravy train seats.
The argument that sanctions hurt the poor is a lie spread by those seeking to mislead and confuse the issue. It is corruption that has made the ruling elite richer than the sultan and by the same token it is corruption that has made the poor, poor.