Saturday, 28 March 2020

Wuhan style lockdown will not stop spread of covid-19 - can't compare chalk and cheese P Guramatunhu


In an effort to stop the spread of corona virus, Mnangagwa has ordered a nation-wide 21-day lockdown starting Monday 30 March. SA is already in the middle of a 21-day nation-wide lockdown and many other countries have adopted similar measures. China imposed a lockdown in Wuhan, a city of 10 million people, and, as we know, successfully stopped the spread of the virus. There is no chance of Zimbabwe’s lockdown repeating China’s success, comparing chalk and cheese, and here is why:

1)   The Chinese identified Wuhan as the epicentre of the corona virus outbreak, the lockdown was to stop infected people travelling out and spreading the virus and those within the city spreading it to others. Zimbabwe does not have even 10 corona virus cases and it is over the top to lockdown a whole nation of 16 million just because 10 individuals are infected. It would have made more sense to trace all the people the infected have been in contact with and place them into quarantine.

2)   If we assume there are a hell lot more people infected with corona virus that the 10 or so then officials must get their act and identify the infected and treat them. The Chinese built massive additional hospitals in Wuhan and had them staffed and equipped to cater of influx of corona virus victims. Other than getting the Army and Police to enforce the lockdown, the regime is doing nothing else!

3)   If the plan is to abandon all those with the virus infection to either recover or die; which, either than paying lip service to stopping the infection, is certainly the reality on the ground; then we must expect the number of infected to increase. Even if the number infection slowed down during the lockdown, we can expect the numbers to increase again as soon as the lockdown is over.

4)   Of course, this Zanu PF government is paying lip service to stopping the spread of corona virus. The country does not know the spread of the virus because the regime is not testing. The regime has done little to ensure there is clean running water in hospitals much less equip and staff the hospitals to treat those with corona virus.

5)   The 21-day shutdown is itself just a gimmick, in a country in which unemployment is a nauseating 90%; there was not much to shutdown. Zimbabwe has become a nation of vendors and they will be back on the streets in full force even if the corona virus figures are increasing because with no other source of income the people would rather risk catching the virus than starve to death. People need to eat, corona virus shutdown or not. The British government, for example, is paying up to 80% of the wage of laid-off workers or else claim the welfare benefits. Zimbabweans have no such safety net and ill afford to the 21-day shutdown extended even by one more day!

The lockdown will, at best, slow down the spread of the virus but will not stamp it out; other concrete measures must be implemented to achieve that. And without stamping it out the virus will flare up again as soon as the lockdown is lifted. The lockdown cannot be sustained indefinitely. Zimbabwe has imposed the lockdown, autocratic and ease bit; but it failed to guarantee the resources to help those infected to recover and to eliminate the virus, the intellectually challenging bit.  

So Zimbabweans will endure the economic and social hardships of the Wuhan style lockdown but only to see the corona virus infection increase continue to increase regardless!

11 comments:

  1. Mnangagwa's lockdown is just a copycat of what other countries like China have done. Sadly, Mnangagwa is not smart enough to realise that the Chinese poured in a lot of human and material resources in Wuhan to help those with the virus recover and to stop the virus spreading. Zimbabwe is failing to guarantee the supply of clean running water to ensure people wash their hands much less built the hospitals and supply the staff and equipment to treat corona virus patients.

    Have a lockdown but then doing nothing to stamp out the virus will slow down the spread for the lockdown days but only for the virus to start spreading again soon thereafter.

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  2. Mnangagwa Appreciates Zimbabwe’s Health Personnel with a slogan!

    What a hypocrite! Here is thug who has been wasting millions of dollars on hired planes at a cost US$70 000 per hour but would not pay doctors and nurses a living wage, buy medicine and equipment for our hospitals and has failed to guarantee the supply of clean running water in our hospitals and clinics much less personal protective equipment for those dealing with corona virus patients!

    The people of Zimbabwe must never ever forget they are in this economic and political mess and are now facing this life and death health situation because the nation is stuck with this corrupt, incompetent and tyrannical Zanu PF dictatorship. Mnangagwa rigged the July 2018 elections! And all he has to offer the nation is more economic chaos and foolish slogans!

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  3. @ Chamisa

    “The decision to lockdown Zimbabwe is necessary, wise and supported.

    We are in circumstances of a catastrophe. There is only one Zimbabwe. We are one people.
    Politics aside, we must unite to save lives. Measures to test, detect the virus and cushion the vulnerable essential! #ZimLOC,” tweeted Chamisa.

    This is no one who would disagree that the spread of corona virus is posing a catastrophic threat to all our lives but running around like headless chickens is not going to stop the spread of the virus.

    Zimbabwe’s economy is in total meltdown and millions are living in abject poverty and this 21-day lockdown will only make their lives that much harder. A sacrifice worth making if the lockdown is going to produce the desired result of stopping the virus spreading. There is nothing to suggest that will ever happen. Nothing!

    A lockdown, especially one that cannot be sustained for long, will slow down the spread of the virus for a few days but only for the spread to pick up again the day the lockdown is lifted. Zimbabwe cannot afford an extended lockdown period.

    Two weeks ago, Chamisa approved the Wilkins Hospital’s “preparedness” to admit corona virus patients and when Zororo Makamba was admitted a few days later the nation discovered there was no ventilator, no medicine, no oxygen, no clean running water and for a toilet a bucket!

    No wonder Zimbabwe is in a real catastrophic mess! We only have a corrupt, incompetent and tyrannical ruling party, Zanu PF but an equally corrupt, incompetent and utterly useless opposition party, MDC!

    “Decision to lockdown Zimbabwe is wise!” Indeed!

    Zimbabwe needs a competent and accountable government or the nation will continue to sink into the abyss! We need to implement the democratic reforms, the pre-requisite for free, fair and credible elections a.s.a.p. Cry the beloved country!

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  4. “Some of the measures will be drastic and are sure to upset the daily routines of our lives,” Mnangagwa said.

    For the millions of ordinary Zimbabweans who live in abject poverty and live from hand to mouth failing to earn the few dollar for the day is a lot and stretching that to three weeks is more than "upsetting"!

    Lockdown is all very well in those country where social distancing at home is practical and the period can be extended if need be. In overcrowded suburbs social distancing is simply not possible and since it will be inhuman to extend the 21-day lockdown one has to question what the lockdown accomplish!

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  5. Mnangagwa imposed this 21-day lockdown because he is tyrant and every tyrant likes to flex his muscle every once in a while. Even if one of his advisors had told him the lockdown will not accomplish anything, particularly if it is not backed up by other measures designed to root out the corona virus, Mnangagwa would still have imposed the lockdown.

    A) Because throwing his brute force real appeals to his sense of self-importance.

    B) Even if the people can be persuaded to self-isolated for three weeks the virus will start spreading immediately the lockdown is over if nothing was done to remove or cure the infected people, nothing was done to provide clean running water so there better hygiene, etc.

    C) Imposing a lockdown is something he can do because it is useless. He cannot do something useful like making sure hospitals have clean running water.

    There is so much the Zimbabwe government and people can do to slow down the spread of corona virus if only the country did not have this stifling political system which has allowed corrupt and incompetent individual to rule the roost for all these last 40 years!

    The corona virus outbreak has highlighted the critical importance of a competent and accountable government. The nation blundering from pillar to post, this lockdown is just as futile as the regime’s preparedness plan of a week ago, and meanwhile the virus continues to spread and many people are suffering and many will die!

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  6. @ Seke Mutema
    “We know you wish Zimbabweans the worst Gura, to spite government. Is that simply not being evil?”

    What could be worse for the Zimbabweans than to endure the economic and social hardship of the 21-day lockdown only to then discover their sacrifice was for nothing because the corona virus continued to spread regardless.

    Indeed, it is possible the virus may claim even more victims given there will be even more people’s immunity will be compromised further by the hunger or other treatable diseases. Let us not forget that many Zimbabwean are poor and 34% of the population now live in extreme poverty, they cannot afford one decent meal a day much less other basic necessities such as medicine. By denied the opportunity to earn the few dollars for a day is a big thing, for 21 days – s****t!

    Patrick is only expressing an opinion is he is wrong then what harm has he done.
    Mnangagwa is in a position of power and authority to impose the lockdown and he has done so. If the lockdown turns out to be yet another Zanu PF blunder then many people will suffer and many will die. What makes it worse is he is imposed himself on the nation since he rigged the July 2018 elections. Talk of being evil, Mnangagwa is the devil incarnate!

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  7. @ Seke Mutema
    “Wilbert Mukori the West use locals like you to sanitize their debilitating sanctions effects on us. So whatever you say will only make sense for those handling you, while it is calamity on the country and its citizens. Self-hate which has clearly become your second name, is the climax of mental colonization.”
    On the contrary, it is your inferiority complex that has paralysed you to the point of utter uselessness. Just because you are incapable of thinking for yourself you have fallen into the trap of believing every other black person out there is a village idiot, just like you.
    You have no confidence in any black person articulating anything, right or wrong. Anything a black person says or does, he/she must be parroting what the west wants.
    We are talking about how to stop corona virus spreading; I do not agree the lockdown will do anything to help and have said why. You and Mnangagwa believe otherwise and should explain yourselves. I refuse to accept that whatever government says and does should be accepted no questioned asked because there is volume of evidence to prove this Zanu PF regime is a corrupt, incompetent, vote rigging and murderous government. Where does the West and sanctions fit in there?
    Robert Mugabe knew how shallow minded people like you are and he exploited the weakness to the limit. He and his Zanu PF cronies creamed off the nation’s wealth to build palatial mansions such as the Blue Roof, build sprawling business empires but so poorly run they were wasteful, live extravagant lifestyles, etc. whilst starving public institutions and basic services including health care of funds. He blamed the country’s economic collapse and all the other problems on sanctions imposed by the West and he knew people like you will accept that nonsense no questions asked.
    For the record, Ian Smith, had no problem imposing white colonial rule on your father and mother – he too was easily impressed and accepted everything no questions asked. Cecil John Rhodes had no problem controlling your grand father and grand mother for they too are like you, braindead! In short, your mental inferiority is in your genes!
    I, on the other hand, question everything especially from a vote rigging and murderous tyrant; it is in my genes. I would invite you to open your eyes but I also know that it is not all who see who perceive.
    You want me to be village idiot like you. I do not expect you do not understand why I decline. I find it amusing that you should be so blissfully happy wallowing in your stupidity, like a pig wallowing in its own s***t. A price you pay for generations of mental inactivity, your brain has atrophied into a lump of fat.

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  8. @ Mudadi Kavai
    “The virus does not move. It is moved by people. If people stop moving the virus is not carried to new people and it dies. We need lockdown more than any1 because our health system won’t cope. I would rather have poor alive people than dead ones. Let's not wait for mortality to rise then say lockdown.”
    Most people would agree that the 21-day lockdown will cause a lot of hardship but it would be a sacrifice worth making if you can guarantee the corona virus will die. You cannot guarantee that, can you?
    In Wuhan, the Chinese did imposed a lockdown and ruthlessly enforced it. Wuhan did manage to stamp out the virus but it was because the Chinese invested a lot in human and material resources to deep clean everything; to test, isolate and treat all those who had the virus; to dispose of all corona virus victims; etc.
    In Zimbabwe the authorities are imposing the lockdown and are doing very little else to stamp out the virus. It is naïve to believe that the lockdown on its own will be enough to see the virus die off. Very naïve!
    Lest we forget, we are dealing with a regime that was boasting of the country’s preparedness to deal with corona virus pandemic. All corona virus patients will be treated at Wilkins Hospital, we were told. When the hospital got its first patient, the nation was shocked to discover the hospital had no medicine, staff had no PPE, no ventilators, no monitors, no power sockets, no clean running water and for a toilet the patient were offered a bucket!
    Mnangagwa has not thought through what should be done to stamp out corona virus during this lockdown. The lockdown will have an insignificant or no effect on the spread of corona virus and all the hardships the people will suffer will be for nothing!
    Worse still, there will be nothing any of us can do about the lockdown being yet another Zanu PF blunder. Remember this Zanu PF regime is not accountable to the people, never was!

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  9. @ Dzingo
    “Just to criticise without offering viable alternative solutions is hopeless. This is not time for cheap politics!!!”
    The trouble with dim-wits like you is you have no clue what you are saying and so blunder from pillar to post!
    The criticism of this lockdown must stand or fall on its own merit regardless of whether an alternative solution was offered or not. The nation will be better off having no lockdown at all than going through it only to find it accomplished nothing or worse. FOCUS!

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  10. @ Nduna
    “Typical Zimbabweans! Experts in everything but zero achievement. It's so easy to criticize and act as the best as if one is an outsider. To discredit every effort made by other individuals is not helpful at all, especially if you don't proffer any solution.”
    Actually Mnangagwa is the “Misstra Know It All” Steve Wonder sang about! He rigged the July 2018 elections because he believes he knows exactly what the nation needs to prosper, he has the “super plan”, as Steve would say.
    Make no mistake about, Mnangagwa is 100% certain that his 21-day lockdown will stop the spread of corona virus. The country is in this mess because of Zanu PF incompetence and this lockdown plan is just another ill-advised policy that will cause a lot of grief but no gain. And, as usual, the nation will suffer and die in silence because Zanu PF is not accountable to us mortals!
    “If he shakes on a bet
    He the kind dude
    That’s would pay his debt!” said Steve Wonder.
    The solution to Zimbabwe’s economic and political mess is for the country to implement democratic reforms to ensure free, fair and credible elections. How many times has Patrick and many others said this and yet you still witter about “you don’t proffer any solution”. The reason why you and your Misstra Know It All have not heard is because the only solution you will acknowledge is one in which Zanu PF’s iron grip on power is guaranteed.
    The corona virus has shaken the world so much that post covid-19 world will be a totally different world. Misstra Know It All et al will want Zimbabwe to remain a de facto one party dictatorship but that will not happen, of that I can rest assure you.

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  11. @ Seke Mutema
    “Wilbert Mukori It's you who suffers from inferiority complex hating everything black and worshipping everything white.”
    I admire/despise what someone says or does purely on the basis of whether it is good or bad regardless of the individual’s race, gender, tribe, etc.
    Of course, one can understand why you are obsessed about race and your inferiority complex. You are brain dead and so are more often than not making a complete arse of yourself. You are defending this lockdown policy and making a complete fool of yourself because you cannot deny it is doomed to fail.
    Sadly, this is only making you even more determined to defend it and thus bring up race, sanctions, anything to bolster your position. And then there are people like me reminding you at every turn of who you are – a first class village idiot.
    In 3 weeks, at the end of the lockdown, the figures will show that corona virus is still spreading in Zimbabwe. And the lockdown had no effect. More proof that you and your master, Mnangagwa, are not just village idiots but a***holes!

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