If we go into next year’s elections, with no meaningful democratic reforms in place, there are only three possible outcomes;
a) Zanu PF rigs the elections as it did the 2013 elections landing us back into the situation we are in already of corrupt and tyrannical Zanu PF rule and all the economic and political consequence we see around us with one change – the situation will be worse then than it is now.
This is the most likely outcome but also the least stable. The present economic situation is unsustainable and the pressure will only get worse and the economy sinks even deeper.
b) Zanu PF factional fighting escalates to the point where neither side win and continue their infighting into the elections and thus allow the opposition to garner enough seats force Zanu PF into a coalition government.
Bringing an opposition partner into government will appeal to Zanu PF in the hope this will help take the sting out of disappointment of a worsening economic situation as the GNU did. The coalition will never bring about any meaningful political change because Zanu PF will never permit any meaningful reforms to be implemented.
c) The third outcome is that Zanu PF factional fighting escalates to the point it completely disrupts the party’s vote rigging and handover electoral victory and power to the opposition in a silver platter. This is the least likely outcome but nonetheless possible.
Whilst some people would think this would be a progressive outcome in that the nation will have got rid of President Mugabe and Zanu PF at long last. The down side of this is that the nation will then Tsvangirai and/or Mujuru to form the new government. Both have already proven beyond doubt that they are corrupt and incompetent; they will blunder along, it will be asking for too much to expect them to do anything else, at a time when the nation needs good leadership to get us out of the hell-hole we are in.
Tsvangirai and Mujuru are incompetent but they are nonetheless smart enough to know that it will not be in their political interest for them to implement any meaningful democratic reforms allowing democratic accountability and competition in which they will end up being the loser.
Like it or not, if the corrupt and incompetent opposition win next year they will fail to bring about any meaningful economic recovery because they will not come up with any coherent economic policies. They will all know corruption in Zimbabwe is rampant and they will find the temptation for them to loot irresistible.
Instead of making good on their present opposition demands for Zanu PF to implement reforms by finally implementing the reforms themselves, they will be busy silence the press and stifling debate to hide their worsening record of being corrupt and incompetent.
If we hold the next elections, still with no meaningful reforms in place, then we are almost certain to elect another government led by corrupt and incompetent individuals. There are many countries in Africa, Zambia is one notable example, and beyond that have had one corrupt, incompetent and mediocre regime after another. There is a distinct possibility of Zimbabwe falling into the same trap.
So, with no meaningful democratic reforms in place, next year’s elections will put the nation in an impossible situation being grilled in the Zanu PF frying pan or roasted in the opposition fire. What the nation really wants is to replace the corrupt and tyrannical dictatorship with the healthy and functional democratic system that will restore all individual freedoms and rights including the right to free and fair elections and will end the economic meltdown. Frankly, the nation will be better off staying in the Zanu PF frying pan and continue the fight for democratic change then jump into the fire with the near certainty of being stuck with one useless mediocre regime after another.
The alternative if the nation to demand the implementation of all the democratic reforms BEFORE next year’s elections and thus finally lay the solid foundation for health and functional democratic system. Even if the elections that follow should elect many of the corrupt and incompetent individuals on both sides of the present political divide, it will no doubt take time for quality leaders to emerge; the new regime will be forced to work hard because they will know they have nowhere to hide. If the regime fails to deliver the people will replace it with one that will.