Sunday 22 November 2020

Mnangagwa living in constant fear of coup - as long as economic meltdown remains so too coup threat P Guramatunhu

 'Mnangagwa makes hast military appointment amid coup threats' - screamed the headlines in Bulawayo24. 


“President Emmerson Mnangagwa has made forced cross-cutting changes to his Presidential Guard (PG) Brigade several months after his wife Auxillia clashed with one of the most senior officers in the unit,” read the report.


“According to The News Hawks, The changes reflect Mnangagwa's continued coup-proofing strategy and search for stability in the military forces which brought him to power through a coup in November 2017.”


Robert Mugabe spent the last decade of his time in office in constant fear of street protest and/or a military coup. The nation was rest, they wanted to see something done to stop the growing tide of abject poverty fuelled by the country’s economic meltdown. 


Mugabe could not do anything to end the gross mismanagement, rampant corruption and the crass lawlessness making Zimbabwe a pariah state; the root causes of the economic meltdown. That is to say, he could not do anything to end Zimbabwe’s pariah state without dismantling the Zanu PF dictatorship which had kept him and his Zanu PF cronies in power ever since the country’s independence in 1980. 


So, unable to do anything to end the economic meltdown Mugabe was a sitting dock. The coup he feared, knew was coming but just did not know when, did come. Mugabe was woken up in the small hours of 15 November 2017 with an AK47 Rifle’s business end pointing up his backside! It was game over for him! 


When Mnangagwa took over from Mugabe following the November 2017 military coup, he was smart enough to know that his hold on power was totally dependent on him ending the country’s worsening economic meltdown. He did hit the ground running with his clarion call “Zimbabwe is open for business!” 


It has been three years since the coup and Zimbabwe’s economic meltdown is decidedly worse than ever. “Zimbabwe is open for business!” is dead in the water.


Frankly, “Zimbabwe is open for business!” was doomed to fail. Zimbabwe’s economy was in meltdown before the coup precisely because the country was a pariah state ruled by corrupt, incompetent, vote rigging and murderous thugs. After the coup, Zimbabwe was still a pariah state or be it under a new dictator! Investors and lenders, whom Mnangagwa was targeting with his clarion call, are a shrewd and savvy lot; they were not going to fall for empty promises, rhetoric and cheap marketing gimmicks!


Indeed, the very fact that Mnangagwa went town to sell “Zimbabwe is open for business!” speaks volumes of the man. The world will remember Mnangagwa and his team in their trademark multi-coloured scarfs, a flock of Southern Hornbill with their red wattles distended; what a spectacle. He clearly believed his on cheap propaganda; a dead give away, this is a man of little intellect way out of his league.


Mnangagwa, just like Mugabe before, cannot address the mismanagement, corruption and lawlessness without dismantling the Zanu PF dictatorship, his power base. It is naive to think one can revive the comatose economy and somehow still keep the dictatorship; the two are mutually exclusive. And so, again like Mugabe, Mnangagwa finds himself a seating duck; forever fearful of the street protests and/or military which he knows is coming. 


Mnangagwa’s fear of street protests is so intense as shown by the sheer brutality he has use to stamp it out. His fear of the coup is just as intense as seen by the number of times he has promoted, shuffled and/or fired security services personnel. But as long as the economy continues in its nose-dive the pressure for meaningful political change will only increase. 


Grace Mugabe talked of how her late husband was sleeping with one eye open because the fear of social unrest or a coup was relentless. Having one eye open was not enough to stop the 15th November 2017 coup. Now it is Mnangagwa’s turn to live in fear. He can double his security every month, sleep with both eyes open if he can, etc., etc.; this will not stop the social unrest and/or coup. 


As long as there nothing is done to end the economic meltdown, the pressure for real and meaningful political change will never go away.  


By rigging the elections and thus frustrate the opportunity for peaceful democratic change, Zanu PF has left the nation with no alternative but to resort to violent street protests and/or military coup as the only way to achieve meaningful political change. Rigging elections has postponed change and kept Zanu PF in power but this has a price tag - when change comes there will be violence. 


Robert Mugabe and none of his immediate family were shot in the November 2017 military coup. A few people lost their lives and a number of G40 leaders are in exile and fearing for the safety and lives. There could well be rivers of blood in the next coup!


"You are spying on me," the First Lady reportedly railed at Samson Murombo, then commanding officer of 1 Presidential Guard. Murombo has since been reshuffled.


"Get away! I'm just a mere woman, a grandmother. Go shoot Mnangagwa, I ask for pardon. Don't shoot me, I have children. Just shoot Mnangagwa, because I know this is all about him.”


You sowed the wind and now must reap the whirlwind!  

4 comments:

  1. Chamisa tells Generals to shut up and go back to barracks.

    MDC had the chance to implement far reaching democratic reforms including reforms to ensure the Army is apolitical. MDC failed to implement any reforms and it is rich for Chamisa to now be pontifocating on the subject.

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  2. One of the things that separate the two men is the often-undervalued quality of emotional intelligence. Decades of studies have shown that emotional intelligence is twice as important as technical or cognitive skills when it comes to leadership. Framing leadership only as “heroic” is to miss the importance of the subtle craft of the practice. And this is especially true in times of crisis when tension runs high and opinions are polarised – how leaders adapt and respond in such times can make or break an organisation or a country. As renowned author Wayde Goodall puts it: “It isn’t stressed that makes us fall, it’s how we respond to stressful events.”

    Leading through uncertain times requires great skill and self-mastery – the ability to manage emotions in a way that brings out the best in yourself and others. And research has shown that this quality of self-control and an ability to understand and regulate emotions can make overall thinking more effective too.
    Emotional intelligence can also give the necessary courage to do the difficult work of a leader, which is to confront oneself and one’s limitations as one seeks to find a place in the world.

    And right now, the world is a bit frozen. The worsening health crisis and the political stand-off in the US could sink the global economy into a deeper recession than previously forecast and plunge more organisations and companies into chaos and financial crisis.

    To navigate through these uncertain times, emotionally intelligent leaders who have the grace to accept their own fragility and can help us to get unstuck and move forward with purpose, motivation and zest will be crucial.

    Americans and the country’s democratic institutions are been tested like never before since the dark years of the civil war. There is no doubt that the country has already paid a heavy price of having had a clown like Donald Trump in White in terms of the many lives lost to corona virus because of Trump’s failure to do the right thing. The country will also pay any economic price because of the economic disruption Trump misrule has caused.

    The election of President-elect Joe Biden required the mobilisation of all good and rational men and women across the political divide to come together for the common good - proof the Americans learned something from the four year of Trump in White House.

    Democracy is not perfect, if it was then the Americans would have never made the mistake of electing Trump into White House. The real strength of democracy is that the people have the chance to learn from their mistakes and put things right. In an autocratic and totalitarian system you make a mistake and you are stuck for with the dictatorship four decades, in Zimbabwe’s case.

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  3. Ugandan pop star and presidential candidate Bobi Wine, whose arrest this week triggered protests that led to at least 37 deaths, was released on bail on Friday after being charged with holding rallies likely to spread the coronavirus.

    The violence comes as campaigns kick-off ahead of January elections in the oil-rich East African nation, whose ageing leader Yoweri Museveni is a staunch Western ally but faces accusations of corruption and nepotism at home, which he denies.

    It is a crying shame that decades after independence many African countries are still stuck on what constitutes free, fair and credible elections. Before independence our black nationalists leaders clamoured for “One man, one vote!” But as soon as they got into power they switched, they viewed free debate and democratic competition and accountability as a threat to national unity and stability - all lies to justify the denial of the people’s freedoms and rights.

    The failure to hold free, fair and credible elections has left many nation stuck with mediocre leaders, who very quickly become corrupt and, in their resolve to hang on to power, become vote rigging and murderous tyrants too.

    Making sure that the country implements democratic reforms to ensure free, fair and credible elections is the number one challenge many African country now face. Until the nation has a political system that will deliver free and fair elections there will be no meaningful economic development and political stability.

    All the good things Yoweri Museveni accomplished in the first decade in power have all been undone by the years of misrule that followed. At 34 years in power, he still wants to remain in office although he has nothing of substance to offer the nation. Indeed, he seems to spend all his time and energy in looting and making sure he remains in power at all cost and has no time and energy left for developing the country and all the other pressing national problems.

    As soon as they get into a position of power and authority some people find the temptation to view themselves as divinely chosen to hold office simply irresistible. They become so big headed, pig headed, they find the notion of having to listen to anyone else absurd. The idea that ordinary people should have the power to vote them out of office is an outrage - how can a mere mortal remove God Almighty’s divinely chosen one from office!

    Coming up with a political system that will guarantee the ordinary people their basic freedoms and rights and keep all elected official humble and never ever forget they are mere mortal and fallible humans just like everyone else; is the Holy Grail for Africa.

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  4. @ Madyira Gura

    Zanu PF has imploded already and is sinking into the abyss. The tragic reality is the party thugs still retain an iron grip on the nation and are dragging us all into the abyss with them.

    Mnangagwa and his Zanu PF cronies believe if they cannot rule Zimbabwe then they must burn everything so there is nothing left for anyone else to rule. If Zanu PF is not ruling then they will make Zimbabwe ungovernable.

    The real challenge here is whether we are going to let these thugs drag us into the abyss. They have dragged us this far these last 40 years, right up to the edge of the abyss, and now they will take us over the edge. Are we going to let that happen?

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