Friday 19 February 2021

"Zimbabwe's inflation will drop to 10% by December 2021" - as far fetched as a moonlight mirage N Garikai

 “The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) yesterday forecast annual inflation to plummet to less than 10% this year, driven by a good agricultural season, fiscal and financial sector stability,” reported Bulawayo24.


“In December 2020, Finance and Economic Development minister Mthuli Ncube projected annual inflation to drop to 136% at the end of 2021, after volatilities pushed the rate to 837% in July before declining to 348% by the end of last year.”


In January 2020, Minister of Finance, Professor Mthuli Ncube, said by the end of the year inflation would be 10%. It was 837%! No doubt come December 2012 inflation will way off the 10% target and the nation will be giving a new target date. 


There will be no meaningful economic recovery as long as nothing is done to revive the collapsed agricultural sector, to stamp out the gross mismanagement and the rampant corruption. 


When Mnangagwa took over from Robert Mugabe, he promised to end corruption but three years latter corruption has spread from the diamond mining into gold, platinum and lithium mining, the are cartels in fuel and energy sector, foreign currency trading and even in the supply of corona virus requirements. Mnangagwa will never ever stamp out corruption because he and and his fellow ruling elite are the Godfathers of corruption!


Zimbabwe is a Banana Republic, a pariah state, governed by corrupt incompetent and vote rigging thugs who believe they have the divine right to govern the country and to loot. As long as the country remain a pariah state the country’s economy will remain in ruins, where Zanu PF landed it.


Until we implement the democratic reforms and cure ourselves of the curse of rigged elections and pariah state; there will be no meaningful economic recovery. None!


The country started with a robust economy and today it is in ruins after 40 years of corrupt and tyrannical Zanu PF misrule. Zanu PF promised mass prosperity but has delivered instead mass poverty.


"Coupled with increased food production due to a favourable agricultural season, inflationary pressures are expected to remain subdued in the short to medium term," RBZ governor John Mangudya said in his Monetary Policy Statement yesterday.


"As a result, the economy is expected to continue experiencing a gradual disinflation from the 362,6% annual inflation in December 2020 to below 10% by December 2021. This inflation path will be underpinned by a targeted month-on-month inflation rate of below 3%.”


After 40 years of corrupt and tyrannical rule that has drag the nation deeper and deeper into the abyss, all these empty promises of 10% inflation rate, economic recovery, middle-income status by 2030, etc. are as far fetched as a mirage by moonlight. 

9 comments:

  1. Zanu PF has failed to contain inflation because it has failed to revive the economy. Minister Ncube has managed to stop inflation from soaring above 848% by sacrificing such sectors as education and health which have been starved of funds.

    By the time Zimbabwe gained her independence in 1980 Mugabe and his Zanu PF cronies were convinced they knew best what the nation needed to develop and prosper and hence the reason they dismissed with contempt all efforts to create a multi-party democracy.

    Mugabe’s argument against a democratic Zimbabwe was that the white colonial government was not a democracy and deny the black majority a vote. If the whites had exercised absolute power the attempt to limit the incoming black government’s powers was nothing short of racist oppression.

    What Mugabe and company missed is that a democratic Zimbabwe would guarantee all Zimbabweans their freedoms and rights, which was good for all Zimbabweans.

    Zanu PF has never held free, fair and credible elections and has used its forged mandate to do as it pleased and claim to have the backing of the people. The party has claimed its policies would deliver economic prosperity for the last 40 years and yet the reality on the ground has shown the exact opposite - a relentless march into the economic abyss.

    Mnangagwa and company have enjoyed absolute power for 41 years and all the economic benefits it has brought. Of course, they know they have failed to deliver economic prosperity for the overwhelming majority, they can see the economic ruins they are not blind.

    However Zanu PF leaders will never ever accept they have failed much less the de facto one-party dictator has failed.

    The November 2017 military coup gave Mnangagwa and company an opportunity to blame all the failures of the regime on Mugabe as if he had never been part of the regime. Calling post November 2017 Zimbabwe a Second Republic was a deliberate act designed to sever all links with the Mugabe era. The fact that most of the corrupt, incompetent and tyrannical thugs in the First Republic are in the Second Republic is conveniently overlooked.

    The only realistic hope of Zimbabwe ever getting out of this hell-hole is for the country to force Zanu PF to hold free, fair and credible elections. If the 2023 elections go ahead with no reforms in place then they must be declared null and void.

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  2. "In light of its continuing concerns, the EU has reviewed its restrictive measures, recalling their purpose to encourage a demonstrable, genuine and long-term commitment by the Zimbabwean authorities to respect and uphold human rights and the rule of law," the EU said yesterday.

    "The EU has decided to renew its arms embargo and to maintain a targeted assets freeze against one company, Zimbabwe Defence Industries, taking into account the situation in Zimbabwe, including the continuing need to investigate the role of security force actors in human rights abuses."

    The bloc first imposed sanctions on Zimbabwe after Mugabe deported its chief election observer in 2002, but gradually eased the restrictions.

    "Violations of human rights and limitations on the democratic space are also persisting. The EU is especially concerned about a proliferation of arrests and prosecutions of journalists, opposition actors and individuals expressing dissenting views and the use by high-level officials of speech that could be interpreted as incitement to violence," the bloc said.

    “The electoral commission lacked full independence and appeared to not always act in an impartial manner. The final results as announced by the Electoral Commission contained numerous errors and lacked adequate traceability, transparency and verifiability,” stated the EU Zimbabwe 2018 Election Observer Mission final report.

    “As such, many aspects of the 2018 elections in Zimbabwe failed to meet international standards.”

    Zanu PF blatantly rigged the 2018 elections just as the party has done ever since the country’s independence in 1980.

    If any country in the EU, for example, was to rig elections there would be consequences much worse than the slap on the wrist targeted sanction often imposed of Africa’s vote rigging ruling elite.

    40 years of gross mismanagement and rampant corruption have all but destroyed the country’s economy. Basic services such as education and health care have collapsed. 50% of Zimbabweans are now living in abject poverty. The situation cannot be allowed to continue; Zimbabwe needs meaningful democratic change.

    Zanu PF has stubbornly refused to implement even one token reform and the 2023 elections are set to be a repeat of the 2018 elections. All pressure must now be brought to bear on the regime to force it to accept reforms and change.

    Many more Zanu PF leaders must be added to the sanction list and the sanctions must be fine tuned to make sure they bite.

    If the 2023 elections go ahead with no reforms, then the plebiscite must be declared null and void! Period!

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  3. @ Dr Masimba Mavaza

    However Zimbabwe is not phased by the continuation of the evil sanctions. The language of the EUROPEAN UNION strikes shocking  similarities with the old tired song on the lips of the Zimbabwean opposition in particular the MDC A and Biti.

    The president of Zimbabwe ED Mnangagwa has done everything he could do to embrace the West and their ridiculous demands. Unfortunately the EU has no intention of fairly engaging Zimbabwe. The actually pushing for their agenda of regime change.

    The West has always intended to  to put Zimbabwe under their armpits. They have relentlessly pursued a destructive way against Zimbabwe.

    The None Governmental organisations together with the opposition have proved to be the mouth piece of the West. Because of the funds provided by the West to destabilise Zimbabwe we have seen a number of journalists becoming  political activists.

    The EU is punishing Zimbabwe for protecting its own people. The West has shown serious hypocrisy. In America the Democrats are seeking to introduce a law which will ban Trump from ever participating in politics again. If this was done in Zimbabwe it will be translated as something else.

    Are you denying that Zimbabwe’s July 2018 elections were not free, fair and credible?

    Zimbabwe is stuck in this hell-hole precisely because the country has failed to hold free, fair and credible elections these last 41 years. The sanctions are just one more tool to pressure this Zanu PF regime to implement the reforms so the country can finally hold free and fair elections.

    Everyone in Zanu PF approved the UN sanctions imposed on the white colonial regime for the purposed of forcing it to accept democratic change. The hypocrites and their apologists are now arguing the sanctions do not work!

    Many people lost their very lives fighting the white colonialists for freedom and democratic rights. It is heart breaking that the nation is having to fight for the same things all over again after independence.

    The sanctions will stay! And if the 2023 elections are rigged, they will be declared null and void!

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  4. Minister of Finance, Professor Mthuli Ncube, has promised to revive Zimbabwe's economic fortunes ever since the day he was appointed Minister. The truth is he has failed. Zimbabwe is a Banana Republic, ruled by corrupt, incompetent and vote rigging thugs and anyone claiming the country can prosper given the level of criminal waste of human and material resources is being naive!

    It is a great pity that Zimbabwe has had more than its fair share of professionals like Professor Ncube who have allowed their professional judgement and common sense to be trumped by their selfish ego!

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  5. @ Chamisa

    This would be laughable, coming from the party that wasted the golden opportunity to end the Zanu PF dictatorship, if the consequences of failure were no so tragic! MDC leaders failed to implement even one reform during the 2008 to 2009 because they had their snouts in the feeding trough. "

    Always walk with the people!" You lot sold-out and you call that walking with the people!

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  6.  FINANCE and Economic Development minister Mthuli Ncube boycotted the Zanu-PF politburo on Wednesday, where the party's top brass spent hours discussing the dire state of the economy and how the Covid-19 pandemic had left it grounded.

    Ncube had been invited to give a presentation on the state of the economy, but opted instead to attend the question-and-answer session in the National Assembly.

    The decision to summon him to the meeting comes amid mounting fears among Zanu-PF bigwigs that the party could lose the 2023 general election owing to the catastrophic economic decline, which they fear is angering the population and alienating it from voters.

    "He had been invited to give a presentation on the state of the economy in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic and how it has impacted on economic performance, but he failed to turn up without even officially excusing himself. We only learnt later that he was actually in parliament," a senior party official who attended the meeting said.

    "What we really do not understand is why he could not come in the morning since the meeting started at 10am. He could have just come and made his presentation and then gone to parliament since the question time only kicks off at 2.30pm. What is clear here is that he really wanted to avoid this meeting given what happened the last time he was there," the source said.

    The last time Ncube attended the politburo member, in June last year, guns were trained on him when he told glum-faced Zanu-PF bigwigs that the economy was in terrible shape and he had no magic wand to rescue it overnight.

    Since his appointment in 2018, some party heavyweights have been unsettled by Ncube's economic policy thrust, which saw year-on-year inflation ballooning to 742% in July 2020 amid severe exchange rate volatility. Incomes and savings have been eroded, condemning most citizens to untold poverty.

    Zanu PF has always rigged the elections and, with not even one token reform implemented since the 2018 elections, the party is set to rig the 2023 elections. Admittedly when the economy is in total meltdown as was the case in 2008, at the rate the country is going the economy will not be health come 2023, rigging the elections with millions living in abject poverty does present a big challenge.

    The number one challenge for Zimbabwe is stamping out the curse of rigged elections. If Zanu PF does not implement the reforms them Zimbabweans must have nothing to do with the elections and the plebiscite must be declared null and void even if the MDC and the rest of the opportunists in the opposition camp participate!

    Yes MDC leaders sold out in failing to implement the reforms but that is no excuse for us to put an end to this curse of rigged elections, 41 years and counting after independence!

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  7. THE country is grappling with a 95 percent skills deficit in the medical fraternity and 94 percent skills deficit in the engineering sector, a development which has been hampering optimal service delivery, a Cabinet Minister has said.

    In an interview, Higher and Tertiary Education, Innovation, Science and Technology Development Minister Professor Amon Murwira said the country has a paltry five percent of the required skills in the medical fraternity and another six percent skills availability in the science sector. Prof Murwira said medicine, engineering, agriculture were key drivers of the economy yet they were depleted in terms of skills and qualifications.

    He said this came out from the skills audit conducted by Government recently to ascertain the country's skills levels.

    Prof Murwira said the country has 38 percent skills availability which has seen the country fail to upgrade and maintain its own road infrastructure as well as ensuring optimal agricultural production.

    He said there was need for the country to invest in more technical and relevant degree programmes at tertiary insitutions that drive the economy and industry in order to address the country's needs. Prof Murwira said the Arts sector has skills surplus of 13 percent while Commerce has a skills surplus of 21 percent.

    "Our national skills audit shows that although we have over 94 percent literacy rate (ability to read and write) our skills levels are at 38 percent. When you break it down you find out that in natural sciences our skills levels are at three percent, which means our deficit is at 97 percent. When it comes to medicine, our skills levels are at five percent, which is a deficit of 95 percent.

    "Engineering has six percent skills availability which means there is 94 percent skills deficit that is why we have a very poor road infrastructure. You will be surprised by the state of our roads. Law skills level are at eight percent. If you look into the court rooms you will be shocked. Agriculture has skills levels of 12 percent and there is an 88 percent deficit. This is why sometimes we do not do well in Agriculture. Arts skills surplus is at 13 percent. Commerce skills surplus is at 21 percent," he said.
    With such a yawning skills shortage where does the regime expect the economic recovery to achieve the middle income status by 2030 to come from? The reality in Zanu PF’s Zimbabwe is the left hand has no idea what the right hand is doing, the regime is just blundering along.

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  8. @ Thomas Mapfumo

    Immediate solutions to end the Zimbabwe crisis
    Holding free and fair elections monitored by independent international community nations
    Pressuring the government of Zimbabwe to stop violence against opposition forces
    The upholding of the rule of law through an independent judiciary
    Assurance of the public that police and broadcasting services stop partisanship trends
    The assurance for opposition political parties to be able to freely campaign and be on the ballot without fear for consequences.
    A serious commitment for government to stop corruption and promote accountability through following the criminal justice system.
    An engagement of the citizens of Zimbabwe at various social levels and demographics by authorities to understand the crisis in Zimbabwe and how to end it.

    Conclusion
We pray that this crisis in Zimbabwe catches attention and gets a resolution because the people have suffered for 41 years under selfish leadership dragging the country down. We mainly appeal to big organizations and big nations to intervene on our behalf and ensure that justice and sanity prevails in government.
    
When we saw Mnangagwa use the coup to topple Robert Mugabe, we thought he was the solution. Takepemberera ngozi tichiti mudzimu. Little did we realize that Mnangagwa had his own agenda. He got into office to loot national assets and make himself powerful and fearful. He has no clue on what to do to improve the conditions in Zimbabwe. He has no plan to control his appetite for wealth greed or corruption.

    Thank you very much Mukanya!

    It is as clear as day that Mnangagwa is not going to implement any reforms and so the 2023 elections will be rigged. The MDC and the rest in the opposition camp will once again participate as usual knowing fully well the elections will be rigged for their own selfish reason - greed.

    If the elections go ahead with no reforms then the elections must be declared null and void. After 43 years of rigged elections, this madness cannot be allowed to continue.

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  9. UNITED Kingdom ambassador to Zimbabwe Melanie Robinson says the British government is not happy with President Emmerson Mnangagwa government's pace of reforms.

    Robinson (MR) told Alpha Media Holdings chairman Trevor (TN) on the platform In Conversation with Trevor, that the recent travel bans and asset freezes against four security chiefs were a clear signal the UK will not tolerate human rights abuses.

    The envoy also spoke about the future of Zimbabwe-UK relations and what the British government has been doing to push Mnangagwa's government to implement promised reforms.

    Most blacks approved the imposition of the UN sanctions on the Ian Smith government as a tool to pressure the regime to end white colonial oppression. This Zanu PF government has ridden roughshod over the people denying them their freedoms and rights. The targeted sanctions are meant to pressure the regime to change its ways just as the UN sanctions were to pressure Ian Smith and his fellow white Rhodesians. Those who objected to the UN sanctions were wrong then just as those objecting to the western sanctions on Zanu PF leaders are wrong now.

    The corona virus has dragged Zimbabwe’s economy into even deeper trouble and the country’s need for a competent government as never been greater than it is now. The sanctions and all the other pressure points must be pushed harder to show the increased urgency.

    It is certain that Zanu PF will not implement any meaningful reforms before the next elections. What must now be clear is that Zanu PF will not be allowed to get away with another rigged elections. The elections must be declared null and void.

    Zimbabwe must break the vicious cycle of rigged elections and bad governance!

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