Mnangagwa may be the less of the three Zanu PF evils our goal is replace dictatorship with democracy. W Mukori

Zimbabwe Defence Force (ZDF) spokesman, Major General Sibusiso Moyo’s live broadcast on Zimbabwe Broadcasting Corporation Television this morning, 15 th November 2017, will go down in the annals of the nation’s history. Ever since General Constantino Chiwenga read his statement, flanked by 30 or so ZDF top brass members, on Monday 13 November 2018 (another historic day), threatening President Mugabe to stop purging former VP Emerson Mnangagwa from the party, the nation was on edge, dreading a military coup. At 04.00 local time, an unholy hour when all decent people are snoring in their beds and only witches are afoot, Maj General Moyo made his announcement.

"Fellow Zimbabweans, following the address we made on 13 November 2017 which we believe our main broadcaster, ZBC and The Herald, were directed not to publicise, the situation in our country has moved to another level," he said.

"Firstly, we wish to assure the nation that His Excellency, The President, of the Republic of Zimbabwe, Head of State and Government and Commander in Chief of the Zimbabwe Defence Forces, Cde R.G Mugabe and his family are safe and sound and their security is guaranteed. We are only targeting criminals around him who are committing crimes that are causing social and economic suffering in the country in order to bring them to justice. As soon as we have accomplished our mission we expect that the situation will return to normalcy.

"To both our people and the world beyond our borders: We wish to make it abundantly clear that this is not a military takeover of Government. What the Zimbabwe Defence Forces is doing is to pacify a degenerating political, social and economic situation in our country which if not addressed may result in violent conflict," said Maj Gen Moyo.

Yeah right! The State President and his family are boxed in their home by the very people who claim “safe and sound and their security is guaranteed”. The only people threatening the president life is those who have put him under house-arrest; they very people who were entrusted to make sure this highway thuggery never ever happen to him! Major General Moyo and his coup conspirators can deny this was not a coup all day and night; the truth is the truth, this is a coup.

“We are only targeting criminals around him who are committing crimes that are causing social and economic suffering in the country in order to bring them to justice!” I had to replay this bit several times to many sure I heard him right! Even now, I cannot resist having another long laugh – my sides are killing me!

Major General, we know what is going here, we are not all stupid. You are right, the root cause of Zimbabwe’s social and economic suffering is the gross mismanagement and rampant corruption by the criminals in Zimbabwe. Zimbabwe’s economy is in such a mess unemployment has soared to dizzying heights of 90%, 72.3% of the population are living on US$1.00 or less a day, etc.; such is the level of the economic suffering the criminals have caused.

It should be noted that Zimbabwe’s economic meltdown is not something that has happen the last year or two; the rot started soon after independence and has got worse and worse all these last 37 years. The obvious question then is; why have you, Major General Moyo, and your team done nothing to stop these criminals until now?

We all know that there have been two distinct factions in Zanu PF, the Lacoste and G40 factions, led by former VP Mnangagwa and Grace Mugabe, fighting to be the one to succeed Mugabe. You and your friends, Major, are in the Lacoste faction. When President Mugabe fired Mnangagwa last week this was quickly followed by lists of Lacoste supporters to be fired. This is what forced you Major and your friends to act, starting with General Chiwenga’s statement.

When Mnangagwa was fired he too was accused of destabilizing the Zimbabwe economy, the same charges the Major is accusing the G40 supporters. The truth is both G40 and Lacoste supporters are corrupt and incompetent, they are pointing accusing fingers at each other now because each is trying to justify why it is booting the other out of the party.

This is a case of two partners in crime of 37 years standing accusing each other of being a criminal! What is laughable is each side is saying this with a straight face, confident everyone will be fooled into embracing the accuser as the good guy! “Kuvaraidza zura kunyanga yaona!” (You are staking one already aware of the staker!) as one would say in Shona.

Word in the rumour mill is that Emerson Mnangagwa is back in Zimbabwe after escaping to SA fearful of his safety and security. No doubt he will now take over from Mugabe. Parliament will be told Mugabe stepped down due to ill health and old age – which is a self-evident truth, Mugabe has been refusing to accept – and thus clear the way for Mnangagwa to take over.

President Mnangagwa can serve the remainder of Mugabe’s remaining five-year term, no problem. However, next elections must be held by 31 July 2018, when the term of the present government's term end, without failure.

No doubt President Mnangagwa would be tempted to postpone next year’s elections to give himself time to show the nation that he is his own man competent enough to make a positive impact on the country’s shuttered economy. If Morgan Tsvangirai was able to make a difference to the economy during the GNU by scraping the Z$, Mnangagwa is a lot smarter and, given time, would make an even bigger difference. He has only four months, if elections are held in April, or eight months max; not enough time.

Mnangagwa would not win a free, fair and credible elections if one was to be held in eight months from now. The people may be glad to see the back of Mugabe right now but if they are given the opportunity to get rid of Mnangagwa, the last and remaining half of the Zanu PF dictatorship, they will seize it with both hands. Mnangagwa is smart enough to know that.

Mnangagwa has waited for 37 years to be president and he would not risk being booted out of office after only eight months. To hold on to his job he will have two choices:

a)     Rig next year’s election. Zanu PF’s vote rigging machine has not been affected by all the turmoil tearing the party apart right now because the key players, the security sector bigwigs like General Chiwenga, the field operatives from the various security services, the war veterans and, of course, Mnangagwa himself, are still there.

Although Mugabe held most of the cash to bankroll the vote rigging machine, Mnangagwa knows where the cash was coming from and will have little problem milking the cow!

Mnangagwa can blatantly rig next year’s elections, his greatest problem is getting away with it. The current chaos in Zimbabwe was a wake-up call to SADC leaders, they know Zimbabwe’s political instability will never go away until the country is cured of the curse of rigged elections. If SADC leaders refused to accept Mnangagwa’s election victory then his hopes of holding on to power would be finished!

b)     Postpone the elections by two or three years and ask the opposition to join him in another Government of National Unity (GNU), to buy himself time to prove he can turn the national economy around.

Mnangagwa will have no problem get the like of Tsvangirai to join him in another GNU, the MDC-T leader and his colleagues have lost political credibility and know their chance of winning any seats in next year’s elections are very small given the opposition camp is overcrowded right now with wannabes.

Mnangagwa’s problem with calling for a GNU is justifying it. Mnangagwa cannot deny that his taking over from Mugabe is an internal Zanu PF matter; made mess by Mugabe’s refusal to hand over power, yes, but still an internal matter. Zanu PF cannot propose the GNU on the ground the party has failed to make adequate preparation for fresh elections because the regime will have to square the unethical circle of rewarding itself for its planned failure.

Even if people were to turn a blind eye to the ethical question there is the more immediate issue of can anyone be so foolish to trust the same Zanu PF and MDC politicians to implement the democratic reforms to ensure free, fair and credible elections when they are the ones who failed to get even one reform implemented in the last GNU!!

It was Grace Mugabe and many other Zanu PF minions who have often claimed that Robert Mugabe had been appointed president of Zimbabwe by God Himself. The tyrant had clearly believed this was so because he had often said God alone would remove him from office in line with his ambition to be life-president. The tyrant had rigged elections and even murdered over 30 000 to ensure no-regime-change. Still, history will say, it was the same Zimbabwean Army Generals, who had shed the blood of most of his political victims to help impose Mugabe on a reluctant nation, who booted the tyrant out of office at 04.00 hours on 15 November 2017.

Emerson Mnangagwa, who has helped to impose Mugabe on the nation, finally inherited the presidency, after 37 years of walking in Mugabe’s shadow and doing the tyrant’s dirtiest political jobs such as the murders and vote rigging. I do not believe Mnangagwa’s presidency will last beyond the remaining few months of Mugabe’s term because he cannot win free, fair and credible elections, to with his history as Mugabe’s murderous and vote rigging side kick. He can rig the elections but will not get away with it.

Whilst I would readily agree with most Zimbabweans who consider Mnangagwa the less of the three Zanu PF evils, the other two being Mugabe and his wife Grace. I would like to remind all Zimbabweans that the real choice is between good and evil, we can end the dictatorship and not just swop one dictator for another by implementing the democratic reforms so we have free, fair and credible elections – our guarantee for good, competent and, most important of all, accountable government for our time and posterity.

Zanu PF is imploding and the factional war has managed remove Mugabe out of office. We, the ordinary people, must not forget that the Mnangagwa led Zanu PF dictatorship is but the flip-side of the Mugabe Zanu PF dictatorship. We want a healthy and functional democracy and must keep our eyes fixed on that and not compromise.