There is such a wide discrepancy between Zimbabwe and SA’s official covid-19 cases and deaths.
Zimbabwe has 11 162 cases and 306 deaths compared to SA’s 845 083 cases and 22 952 deaths. Given the heavy human traffic between the two countries one expected Zimbabwe’s figures to be roughly 1/4 those of SA given our population is in the same ratio.
The reason for the discrepancy is immediately obvious when one looks at the number of corona virus tests, 44 074 tests per day for SA. Adjusting to match population size, Zimbabwe should be doing 11 000 or so tests but is doing only 1 577 tests per day or 14.3%.
The penalty for not carrying out as many tests as one should is that many people with the virus are missed out. And so many people who should otherwise be in isolation continue mixing with the rest of the population, spreading the virus.
Failing to correctly identify corona virus deaths will also result in the spread of the virus since the strict burial protocol will not be followed.
There is a scrabble for the vaccine and poor countries like Zimbabwe depending on donated vaccine will be among the last ones to get it. UK was the first country to get the Pfizer vaccine but it will be a year or more before Zimbabwe gets enough to vaccinate the at high risk group. It will be two years or more before it gets enough to vaccinate the whole population.
The amount of vaccine Zimbabwe will get for the high risk group and then the general population will be based of the OFFICIAL reported cases 11 162 which are 5.2% of the 211 000 cases or 1/4 of SA.
|
Country |
Cases |
Deaths |
Tests per day |
Missed cases |
Vaccine per case |
|
South Africa |
845 083 |
22 952 |
44 074 |
|
get 100% |
|
Zimbabwe (official) |
11 162 |
306 |
1 577 |
85.7% |
get 5.2% of real |
|
Zimbabwe (1/4 of SA) |
211 000 |
5 700 |
11 000 |
0% |
get 100% |
|
% variation |
5.2% of real |
5.4% of real |
14.3% below |
|
short fall 94.8% |
So by failing to carry out the covid-19 tests as diligently as SA Zimbabwe has missed out as much as 85.7% of the cases, people who should have been in isolation but instead have been spreading the virus. What is more, the country’s very low official cases and deaths have put the country in the at low risk category and will be treated accordingly. If the official figures are 5.2% of what the real figures are then we will get 94.8% of the vaccine and other assistance we should.
There is no doubt that this Zanu PF government is pleased the country has one of the lowest covid-19 cases and death in the world. The country is certainly paying dearly for the lie with human suffering and lives and it is not even worth a farthing!
Whereas we now have over 650 of confirmed covid 19 cases, the Ministry’s conservative figure is still at 330. Several pupils and teachers are being infected on a daily basis as schools have no covid 19 abatement equipment, have no adequate infrastructure, personnel and textbooks to ensure social distance. Most hostels in boarding schools are overcrowded while bloated classes are the order of the day.
ReplyDeleteIn all the most affected schools, be it John Tallach, Matopos High, Goromonzi High, Anderson Adventist, Waddilove, Dadaya etc, the Ministry has been found wanting and virtually useless in alleviating the plight of students and teachers.
A case in point is that of Dadaya High in Zvishavane, a school with more than 1000 pupils. The Ministry could only afford to source 47 testing kits. As such only 47 (13 Staff members and 34 students) were tested. It is therefore important to state that the cumulative positive cases that stand at 32 according to ZBC and 29 (25 students and 4 members of staff according to some health officials) must be fully comprehended as a tip of the iceberg. With testing of more pupils and teachers after acquiring more test kits, the result would be worse. At any rate, many students who were not tested have mild and moderate symptoms that resonate with covid.
Ministry officials did not only reject professional advice given by teacher unions but have also not taken seriously Ministry of Health recommendations. They have not come clear on how invigilators can man exams of positive cases without protective gear, let alone handle their scripts, and mark contaminated scripts.
There are 1 000 students and government can only test 47 so it is going to take 20 days to test everybody. Since all those who are tested and have no virus live in the same dormitory with those with the virus but do not know yet because they have not been tested are at risk getting the virus. If the do get the virus they will probably not test again and so will spread it to others. This is just a nightmare.
As a rule, young people have not being catching the virus but when they are forced to live cheek by jowl with no chance of social distancing and all the other precautions the numbers of infected do go up.
The death rate from covid-19 among young people is low but this too will probably change as these students are clearly be subjected to a virus overload!
The failure by this Zanu PF to ramp-up the corona virus testing to keep track of the spread of the virus is just one of the many examples the regime has failed the nation in the management of this pandemic.
ReplyDeleteWe hear that Dadaya High School, for example, has 1 000 student and 32 were found to have covid-19. It turns out the school received 47 covid-19 test kits number of tests. If only 47 are going to be tested per day this will take 20 days to test everybody!
The school, like most schools and colleges in Zimbabwe does not have enough facilities to allow such things as social distancing, the student live cheek by jowl.
If all the students had been tested and those with the virus isolated, it would make sense to deep clean the school. A deep cleaning when you still do not know who has the virus and who does not is pointless.
It will come as no surprise therefore that all the student who were prone to get the virus will get it because the testing regime is so slow and ineffective to stop everyone being exposed to the virus. By the time some of the students are finally tested they would probably have recovered!
So at the end of the day Dadaya High School will has, officially, have 100 or so confirmed covid-19 cases but in reality the number will probably 4 or more times that.
If Zimbabwe is failing to supply enough covid-19 tests kits to keep track of the virus it is almost a given the same will happen with the supply of the vaccine. When there are 1 000 vaccines needed the country will only supply 47! This is a nightmare!
Matabeleland north Provincial affairs minister Richard Moyo has become the latest top Zanu-PF official to test positive for Covid-19 as cases continue to surge.
ReplyDeleteZanu-PF secretary for administration Obert Mpofu and the party's communications director Tafadzwa Mugwadi tested positive for Covid-19 over a week ago.
Moyo said he tested positive for the coronavirus last Monday, but said he was asymptomatic.
"I am self-isolating at home, but for now I am not feeling any pain and I am still asymptomatic, but I am taking as much as possible caution while at home," he told Cite.
When any of the ruling elite, relative or anyone likely to pass the virus to the ruling elite get the corona virus, the testing and tracking protocol is followed without delay. When it is anyone else the regime is more interested in saving money on tests kits.
Dadaya High School has just had 32 covid-19 cases; it turns out the school received 47 test kits for a school with 1 000 students! It is going to take 3 weeks to test all the students!
Thank God corona virus is not as deadly as Ebola; that is all one can say.
@ Zimvigil
ReplyDeleteThe sight of an opposition MP grovelling on the floor of parliament before the Finance Minister to thank him for women's sanitary pads is about as stupefying as South Africa's Chief Justice Mogeong Mogeong's observation that Covid 19 vaccines 'might be of the devil'.
MDC MP Priscilla Misihairambwi-Mushonga unrolled a reed mat in front of the Finance Minister Ncube and then knelt down showering praise on him before handing him a wooden plate and two t-shirts saying she was proud of him for providing sanitary ware for girls.
In an article in this publication, former Zanu PF chief of propaganda, Professor Jonathan Moyo lamented of how the MDC leaders have failed to implement the democratic reforms because they were chasing cheap news headlines. Well that is certainly all MP Priscilla Misihairambwi-Mushonga has ever done in all her years in parliament!
Several schools across the country have already closed on their own, well ahead of the December 18 official closing day, as confusion reigns over the government's response to a resurgence in Covid-19 cases.
ReplyDeleteThere was also a drastic fall in the number of students coming to school since December as parents opted to keep their children at home as a risk mitigation measure, the school said.
The government says schools will reopen on January 4 despite concerns that Zimbabwe might witness a spike in Covid-19 cases around that time as there was likely to be increased travel during the festive season.
One of the reasons many countries the world over have managed to reopen schools, colleagues and universities is because they introduced measures to allow social distancing, regular hand washing, regular deep cleaning of facilities and most important of all had a robust testing and tracking system that would allow infection hotspots to be pick up very quickly. Zimbabwe’s not done any of these things!
Recently 32 students and teachers were found to have the corona virus. It turns out govern could only test 47 people out of a student population of 1 000. This is a sick joke! It is going to take three weeks to know if any of them have the virus. And so with schools closing in 4 days many students will go back home not knowing whether they have the virus or not! No doubt some will have the virus and so they will be spreading the virus to family and friends.
Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year indeed! The will be a surge in corona virus cases and deaths, of that we can all be certain.
Emmerson Mnangagwa has promoted 515 senior and junior police officers stationed in Bulawayo and Matabeleland South provinces.
ReplyDeleteThe promotion comes after the president had recently promoted over 1000 police officers. The officers were promoted as follows in Bulawayo:
479 officers from the Criminal Investigations Department (CID), Police Protection Unit (PPU) and the Daily Uniformed Branch (DUB) were elevated.Of those, 52 were Inspectors who were promoted to the rank of Chief Inspector.123 were promoted from Sergeant to Assistant Inspector282 Constables were elevated to Sergeants.22 were elevated from Sergeants to Sergeant Majors.
Zimbabwe has lost many health care workers and teachers, they have been forced to leave the professor or the country to earn a living wage. The few that are still working are so poorly paid many cannot even afford to travel to work! What the country has is plenty of soldiers, Police Officers and CIOs and they are well paid and well equipped - at least compared to the teachers and health care workers!
Zimbabwe is a Police State!
Morocco is gearing up for an ambitious Covid-19 vaccination programme, aiming to vaccinate 80% of its adults in an operation starting this month that is relying initially on the Sinopharm vaccine.
ReplyDeleteSinopharm says its shot relies on a tested technology, using a killed virus to deliver the vaccine, similar to how polio vaccines are made. Leading Western competitors, such as the shot made by-PFizer and its German partner BioNTech, use newer, but less-proven technology to target the coronavirus's spike protein using RNA. Russia also has its own vaccine. There are several vaccines being developed in China, some of which are already being administered.
According to the researchers, the Sinovac Biotech vaccine led to a quick immune response during trials with around 700 people.
With the pandemic reported to be almost entirely under control within China, late-stage trials of the four Chinese vaccines are being conducted in Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Indonesia and Brazil.
Chiwenga is in China for his own medical needs, he and the other of the country’s filthy rich ruling elite can afford to fly to China and have the treatment he wants.
Lieutenant General Edzai Absolom Chanyuka Chimonyo is in India for private medical needs. He is using his share of the looted wealth from Marange diamonds to pay for his treatment.
The country’s health care and education services have all but collapse because the filthy rich have continued to milk the nation to death!
While he is in China, Chiwenga will try to get a corona vaccine for the country, we are told. Given that China is one of the countries that has been involved in the loot in Marange and Chiadzwa, the nation will only be glad to help Zanu PF stay in power. Even is Zimbabwe does get the Chinese vaccine we all know we have paid for it a thousand times over in many other ways!
South Africa’s COVID-19 cases have breached the one million mark, after recording 9 502 new cases on Sunday.
ReplyDeleteThe country now has 1 004 413 COVID-19 cases.
A total of 214 new deaths have also been recorded, bring total COVID-19 related deaths to 26 735.
This is a real tragedy and can only express one’s profound sympathy with all South Africans and with all those who have been directly and indirectly affected.
Zimbabwe’s covid 19 cases and deaths should be roughly 1/4 that of SA, 250 000 and 6 500 respectively, in line with the size of the country’s population. Official Zimbabwe has 13 148 cases and 354 deaths or 5%; this is so because Zimbabwe has only been carrying out about 10% per capita tests of what SA has been doing.
Indeed, Zimbabwe’s cases and deaths would be a lot higher than they need be because by not testing the country has left a hell lot more people who should otherwise be in isolation infecting others!