Over the weekend
Hopewell Chinono hosted a twitter discussion on “The importance of NOT
boycotting elections with #ProfLevitsky”.
“I consider
Zimbabwe to be a competitive authoritarian regime. It has never in its history been
a democracy. A democracy is a system in which the playing field is reasonably
level; where the opposition compete in elections on reasonable fair terms and
can win. And wins with regularity,” explained USA based Professor Steven Levitsky.
“In an outright authoritarian
dictatorship, like Rwanda, there is no competition. There may be elections,
there is no serious competition. The opposition has no chance of winning and
the dictator sleeps well the night before the elections.
“A competitive
authoritarian regime is in between a democracy and authoritarian dictatorship.
“Sometimes, Zimbabwe
has been a soft authoritarian regime in which the opposition has enjoyed some
democratic space but has also used repressive measures to become hard
authoritarian regime.”
Professor Levitsky then
went on to argue that there were no easy options when it came to whether or not
the opposition should participate in an election process in which the playing
field is not level. Boycotting is an option when one has leverage on the regime
to force it to have a level playing field otherwise the only other option is to
participate.
“In the mid-1990s liberal
Western Democracy was the only game in town. The West, international
institutions like IMF and WB had leverage in the form of financial assistance which
they withheld if the regime failed to hold free, fair and credible elections
and therefore lost international illegitimate. This is no longer the case now,
30 years latter!” explained the Professor.
“The West has since
lost much of its economic and military muscle and outward international focus in
the last 30 years and with it lost its leverage over authoritarian regimes. The
regimes have looked to China and Russia, particularly with the former’s
emerging as a strong economic and military power in its own right; for financial
assistance and international legitimacy.”
With no political
or economic leverage, the least of the bad options, is to participate in the
flawed elections! For one thing, the opposition is given some space during
elections to campaign and it must use this space.
Authoritarian
regimes sometimes overestimate their own rigging power. Rigging elections is
not easy and there are cases where the regime rigged the elections and still
lost. Or it is forced to blatantly cheat and thus losing credibility and,
ultimately, legitimacy.
Besides,
authoritarian regimes can manufacture their own opposition parties to counter
opposition boycott. (Zimbabweans are very familiar with the “Government Organised”
Non-Governmental Organisations (GONGO). Indeed, what is POLAD if not a Zanu PF organised
opposition.) Who is there to authoritatively say this opposition is genuine and
that one is not!
“There chance of
winning a rigged election is 1 in 10 if you participate, which is much better
than 1 in 100 if you boycott,” concluded Professor Steven Levitsky.
A very persuasive presentation
and crowned by such odds; those calling for participating in the Zimbabwe’s March
2022 by-elections and the 2023 harmonised elections, regardless of the
certainty Zanu PF is rigging these elections, win the day.
The truth is Professor
Levitsky’s presentation is based on the assumption that for the last 30 years there
was/is no meaningful leverage to force the Zanu PF regime to implement
meaningful democratic reforms to ensure free, fair and credible elections. How
he, an academic intellectual whose reputation is founded on holding historic
facts and truths in high regard, had completely air-brushed the watershed 2008 Zimbabwe
elections and the 2008 to 2013 GNU that followed out of the country’s history beggars
belief!
Credit where credit
is due, SADC, the regional body, (not the West or IMF, etc.) pressured the Zanu
PF regime to implement several electoral reforms leading to the March 2008
elections. The March vote was the nearest to free, fair and credible elections
the country has ever experienced since independence in 1980.
However, when Zanu
PF became aware the party was heading for a resounding electoral defeat, the
party’s vote rigging machine was switched back on. ZEC was stopped declaring
the results. The party spend the next six weeks recounting the 5 million or so votes;
whittling down Morgan Tsvangirai’s 73%, according to Mugabe’s Freudian slip, to
47%, enough to force a presidential runoff.
During the runoff,
Zanu PF unleashed the party’s youth militia and the war veterans to intimidate,
harass, beat and rape; the heavy-duty stuff of abducting and killing were
carried out by the Army, Police, CIO and Prison Service personal. The regime
was punishing the people for daring to reject Zanu PF is the earlier vote.
“What was
accomplished by the gun, cannot be undone by the ballot!” thundered Robert
Mugabe as the wanton violence engulfed the nation.
SADC and AU, for
the first time ever after decades of turning a blind-eye to rigged elections, joined
the international community in condemning Zimbabwe’s 2008 elections as a farce.
It was SADC and AU’s refusal to grant Zanu PF political legitimacy that forced
Mugabe to sign the 2008 Global Political Agreement (GPA) agreeing to the need
to implement a raft of democratic reforms to ensure future free and fair
elections.
The 2008 to 2013
GNU, comprising Zanu PF and the two MDC faction with SADC as the guarantor of
the agreement, was the vehicle tasked to implement the reforms. Sadly, not even
one meaningful reform was implemented.
Mugabe bribed the corrupt
and breathtakingly incompetent MDC leaders with the trappings of high office
and the rest was history. MDC leaders have often complained that Zanu PF would
not reform themselves out of office. What the MDC leaders fail to admit is that
during the GNU it was within their power to implement the reforms and they
failed to get even one reform implemented in five years. Not even one reform!
When the SADC
leaders realised that no reforms had been implemented, they asked to have the
2013 Zimbabwe elections postponed until the reforms were implemented. “If you
go into the elections next month, you will lose; the elections are done!” they
told Morgan Tsvangirai and his MDC friends to their faces.
It should be remembered
here that SADC leaders, were still the guarantor of the 2008 GPA, and therefore
still had the leverage over Zanu PF. They could declare the election without
reforms null and void and take back the country to the situation it was in at
the end of the rigged 2008 elections. MDC leaders were clearly aware of SADC
leaders’ leverage and yet they still went ahead and undermined it by participating
in the elections.
“The worst aspect
for me about the failure to agree a coalition was that both MDCs couldn’t now
do the obvious – withdraw from the (2013) elections,” confessed David Coltart,
MDC-N minister in the GNU, in his book, The Struggle Continues 50 years
“The electoral process was so flawed, so illegal, that the only logical step
was to withdraw, which would compel SADC to hold Zanu PF to account. But such
was the distrust between the MDC-T and MDC-N that neither could withdraw for
fear that the other would remain in the elections, winning seats and giving the
process credibility.”
So, it was none
other than MDC leaders themselves who undermined the leverage SADC leaders had
to force Zanu PF to hold free and fair elections and, by participating in the
flawed elections, gave flawed process credibility and vote rigging Zanu PF legitimacy.
And all because of greed, MDC leaders knew Zanu PF was offering a few gravy-train
seats to entice them to participate and they found the bait irresistible.
If anyone thought
MDC leaders had learned their lesson after Zanu PF blatantly rigged the elections;
they were wrong. Four of the main MDC factions plus three other opposition
parties did form the MDC Alliance coalition and yet they still failed to do the
“obvious” thing – boycott the elections – for the same reason – greed.
Of course, it was
the same greed that had stopped MDC leaders implementing even one reform during
the five years of the GNU.
MDC leaders are
participating in the 2023 elections knowing fully well that with no reforms
Zanu PF will rig the elections and that by participating they will give vote
rigging Zanu PF legitimacy. Nonetheless, they are hell-bent on participating for
the same reason as before – greed.
Of course, Chamisa
and company will never ever admit they are participating in these flawed
elections out of greed. And so, they have made a big song and dance about their
“winning in rigged elections strategies”.
“In 2013 we (MDC) could
have boycotted the elections, the regional leaders were expecting a boycott. We
did not take that option but I think it would have been a good moment to use it,”
admitted Dr Alex Magaisa, he was the second keynote speaker in the twitter
discussion.
As usual, Dr
Magaisa did not explain why MDC did not boycott the elections and thus
squandered the golden opportunity. He should know because he was GNU’s Prime
Minister Morgan Tsvangirai’s special adviser. He failed to get MDC to implement
even one reform during the GNU, so utterly useless adviser he turned out to be.
“President Cyril
Ramaphosa referred to the lifting of sanctions in other countries but did not
include Zimbabwe. The omission is not insignificant, it is important in so far
as signalling some of the attitudes towards Zimbabwe. SA has been critical of
Zimbabwe in the past,” continued Dr Magaisa in his presentation.
“There is a sense
out there that things are not well in Zimbabwe!”
There is no doubt
that SADC leaders are really concerned about the worsening economic and political
situation in Zimbabwe. They will condemn the flawed 2023 elections and resume
the pivotal role they played in 2008 in forcing Zanu PF to accept the need to implement
the raft of democratic reforms necessary to end the Zanu PF dictatorship, if
they had the confidence there are Zimbabweans who can be trusted to implement
the reforms.
If we can team the
greed of the opportunistic opposition. And, more significantly, educate our naïve
and gullible electorate to participating in flawed elections on the false
promise of “winning rigged elections”. We will give SADC leaders the confidence
to resume their role of forcing Zanu PF to accept the need for reforms,
confident, this time, there are Zimbabweans they can trust to implement the
reform.
(“The importance of
NOT boycotting elections with #ProfLevitsky” is available on
https://twitter.com/i/spaces/1BRKjnIWyLjKw).